By Emmanuel Muma (Trade Expert opinion)
The prospect of a second Trump administration has sparked widespread global speculation, as nations anticipate what shifts in U.S. foreign policy and economic strategy might emerge. To better understand what lies ahead, it is prudent to examine the patterns of Trump’s first term in office. During that time, the administration employed broad-based protectionist policies, targeting both allies and adversaries with measures such as tariffs, subsidies, and renegotiated trade agreements. However, these efforts were often accompanied by erratic policy shifts, leading to significant uncertainty in the global trade environment.
One consistent thread from Trump’s previous tenure is his resolve. When the former president makes a policy pronouncement, history suggests he is serious about taking action. Countries that dismiss his statements risk being unprepared for the implementation of tariffs, sanctions, or other measures. The world must take Trump’s declarations at face value and plan accordingly.
A Differentiated Approach: Trade Allies vs. Rivalries
Trump’s trade and foreign policy are marked by differentiation between close economic partners and strategic rivals. Nations like Canada and Mexico, despite their proximity and economic ties to the U.S., have not been immune to Trump’s policies. In contrast, rivalries such as China have faced heightened scrutiny and aggressive measures.
China is expected to remain the focal point of Trump’s trade policy if he returns to office. His administration may swiftly implement increased tariffs, potentially modifying existing Section 301 tariffs to impose higher rates—possibly 10% or more—on Chinese goods. While the specifics remain unclear, the emphasis on reducing the U.S.-China trade deficit and curbing Chinese influence in critical sectors is evident.
For allies like Canada and Mexico, Trump’s strategy is likely to revolve around leveraging trade agreements to secure concessions favorable to the U.S. His first administration’s Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum serve as a precedent, where allies faced tariffs unless bilateral agreements were renegotiated to meet U.S. demands. Even the closest allies should anticipate that their trading relationship with the U.S. could come under scrutiny, with differentiated tariff schedules and new demands likely to emerge.
Transactional and Strategic Motivations
Trump’s foreign policy often operates on two seemingly contrasting principles: retaliation and transactional opportunism. On one hand, his administration demonstrated a willingness to pursue policies that might disrupt global trade, even at a cost to the U.S. economy, in pursuit of broader geopolitical goals. On the other hand, Trump’s transactional mindset seeks to maximize economic benefits for the U.S., prioritizing investments and deals that strengthen American industries.
In trade policy, this could translate into heightened tariffs as a primary instrument, given their ease of implementation. Subsidies might also play a role, although legislative hurdles could complicate their adoption. Trump’s critique of initiatives like the CHIPS Act—despite its alignment with domestic industrial priorities—illustrates how policy direction may be influenced by political context as much as economic strategy.
Bilateral Over Multilateral Engagements
A hallmark of Trump’s trade strategy is his preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral or plurilateral frameworks. This approach reflects a desire to avoid the dilution of U.S. power often associated with larger negotiations involving multiple countries. The 2017 National Security Strategy outlined this preference, emphasizing bilateral negotiations as a key focus.
This approach is likely to persist in a second Trump administration. Countries will need to prepare for one-on-one negotiations where the U.S. leverages its economic might to extract favorable terms. The focus will likely remain on securing market access and diminishing China’s dominance in global trade, particularly in critical sectors like technology and minerals.
MINES AND MINERALS: AMERICA’S QUEST IN AFRICA
In Africa, Trump’s second administration would likely pursue a more strategic approach aimed at countering China’s significant influence on the continent. Africa’s abundance of critical minerals required for electric vehicles (EVs) and technology industries positions it as a focal point for U.S. engagement.
Unlike the confrontational tone expected toward China, the U.S. strategy in Africa may lean on incentives, derisking initiatives, and infrastructure trade support to foster bilateral partnerships. The goal would be to attract African nations aligned with China to pivot toward the U.S. through favorable terms and new cooperation opportunities. However, some African countries—particularly those deemed less critical to U.S. strategic interests—could face reductions in aid and development finance.
THE ART OF THE TRADE WAR: TOOLS IN TRUMP’S TRADE TOOLBOX
A second Trump administration is expected to rely on several key instruments to shape its foreign and economic policy:
- Tariffs: Likely to remain a cornerstone of Trump’s trade strategy due to their simplicity and effectiveness in reshaping trade dynamics.
- Subsidies: While more challenging to implement legislatively, they could serve as a tool to bolster domestic industries.
- Industrial Policy: Efforts to attract investment and boost manufacturing within the U.S. could take precedence.
- Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Strengthening the U.S. dollar and reevaluating foreign aid are possible avenues to align economic and foreign policy goals.
PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE”: STRATEGIES FOR NAVIGATING TRUMP’S POLICIES
A second Trump administration would bring a mix of aggressive trade policies, strategic realignment, and transactional dealings. For allies and adversaries alike, the message is clear: Trump’s policies will prioritize U.S. economic and strategic interests, often with little regard for multilateral norms.
The global trade environment should brace for renewed uncertainty, with tariffs likely leading the charge. Nations must prepare for a U.S. that is unapologetically focused on its own gain, leveraging bilateral relationships to extract concessions while curbing the influence of competitors like China. For Africa and other regions, opportunities may exist to engage with the U.S., but these will come with conditions favoring American strategic interests.
In this high-stakes landscape, the global community must act decisively to adapt, negotiate, and navigate the challenges posed by a second Trump administration.
